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ANALYSIS: If Frydenberg & Dutton get voted out, who will be the next Liberal leader?

Updated: Jul 8, 2022

There’s only 9 days to go until Australia Decides, with both leaders blitzing marginal seats and pledging policies to the undecided.

On May 21, the decision might come earlier than other elections, with Labor tipped by some to win 80 seats. 80 seats will be a comfortable victory for the party and would see the ALP form a majority government. In this case, it will be a whitewash victory with 11 Liberal MPs under severe pressure to retain their seats.

This list includes Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who currently holds Kooyong but is under threat from 'teal independent' Monique Ryan.

Kooyong is extremely tight, with commentators predicting the race will come down to votes in the hundreds.

Tim Wilson’s seat of Goldstein, held on a margin of 7.8%, is under major threat from independent challenger Zoe Daniel.

Another is Peter Dutton, defence minister and Dickson MP. Dutton is facing pressure from the ALP candidate, Ali France. This will be an extremely tight contest, with France saying “there’s so much at stake” this time around. She says she will be running a grassroots campaign.

In the event the Coalition loses the election (but Scott Morrison keeps his seat of Cook) there's a very real possibility he will go as leader.

If both Frydenberg and Dutton lose, stepping up to be the Liberal leader is out of the equation for them.

Other possibilities for the leadership include Stuart Robert, Alex Hawke & Karen Andrews.

Names also floated by some include Greg Hunt - however, he is resigning this election - and Marise Payne - who is in the senate, not the House of Representatives.

Who do you think will be the next Liberal leader after Morrison? Have your say by emailing

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