• Leonardo Puglisi

Crunching the numbers: Is the Freedom Party right about 0.005% of Victorians supporting Dan Andrews?

Aidan McLindon is aiming to defeat Andrews in the Premier's seat of Mulgrave.

A video from Aidan McLindon, ex-Queensland MP & current Freedom Party of Victoria candidate for Mulgrave, has claimed just 0.005% of people support Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews.


The video - which was posted to the Facebook page of the party's founder, Morgan C Jonas - analysed the results of the 2018 state election in Andrews' seat of Mulgrave.


"Daniel received approximately 20,000 votes in 2018," McLindon said - which is true, he had 19,649 first preferences votes which went up to 21,708 when looked at on a two-party-preferred basis.


"There are currently 4.2 million voters in Victoria," he went onto say - also about right, given the VEC says there are 4,375,992 people on the roll in Victoria as of October 1.

But what we're looking at is the conclusion that "0.005% of the population (support)" Andrews.


To start off with, Victoria is not a presidential system.


Only those (about 40,000 people total) who live in the Mulgrave electorate can vote for Andrews. When you look at that alone, 56.73% of people gave him their first preference & a total of 62.71% supported on a two-party-preferred basis.


And while every other seat had a different candidate, the fact is that Labor - obviously led by Andrews - had 42.86% of statewide first preferences and 57.30% on a two-party-preferred basis in 2018.


While polls aren't reliable (nor are we taking them as fact here) we do know that a Newspoll done around a month before the election showed 45% thought Andrews was a better Premier than Matthew Guy, who was listed at 29%.


So to claim that just "0.005% of the population" support Daniel Andrews (or thereabouts) leaves out important context about Victoria's voting system, which is not a presidential system where the premier would be elected.


Victoria Decides: Live election night coverage from 6pm AEDT on Saturday, 26 November - tune in via our YouTube Channel.

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