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ANALYSIS: How the NSW upper house ballot paper positions could impact who wins

Updated: Mar 11, 2023

All candidates in both houses have been announced, with both major parties nominating a full 93 candidates in the Legislative Assembly.

Nominations have just closed for the NSW election, and almost all parties have nominated at least 1 candidate.

There are 93 electorates at play in the lower house, and 21 seats up for grabs in the upper house.

The total number of candidates for each party in the Legislative Assembly is:

Liberals/Nationals (95/93*)

Labor (93/93)

Greens (93/93)

Sustainable Australia (82/93)

Independents (68/93*)**

Animal Justice (33/93)

Legalise Cannabis (23/93)

Shooters, Fishers, & Farmers (20/93)

Liberal Democrats (17/93)

One Nation (17/93)

Informed Medical Options (10/93)

Public Education (8/93)

Socialist Alliance (2/93)

Small Business (1/93)

* = Multiple candidates in some seats

** = Includes independents endorsed by parties

The Coalition, Labor and the Greens nominated candidates in all seats, with the Liberals and Nationals both putting up candidates in Port Macquarie and Wagga Wagga.

From the electorates, Murray and the Northern Tablelands had the most candidates (a total of 10 each), while 6 electorates had just 4 candidates.

The Legislative Council's candidates were also released under the same time period - with the ballot set to look as follows:

A - Independent (Family First)

B - Independent (United Australia)

C - Animal Justice

D - Labor

E - Independent (Call To Freedom) F - Socialist Alliance

G - Independent (Revive Australia)

H - Elizabeth Farrelly Independents

I - Liberals/Nationals J - Liberal Democrats

K - Independent (Socialist Equality)

L - Public Education

M - Informed Medical Options

N - Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

O - Legalise Cannabis

P - Independent (Danny Lim)

Q - One Nation

R - Greens

S - Sustainable Australia

T - Independent (Christians For Community) U - Independent (AustraliaOne)

UNGROUPED - Stefan Prasad (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Colleen Fuller (Indigenous-Aboriginal)

UNGROUPED - Warren Grzic (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Van Huynh (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Archie Lea (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Michelle Martin (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Lee Howe (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Mick Allen (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Ruth Cheetham (Independent)

UNGROUPED - Guitang Lu (Independent)

UNGROUPED - George Potkonyak (Independent)

The ballot draw can have big effect on the results of the NSW Legislative Council, possibly determining seats at times.

For example, Legalise Cannabis gained a significant portion of the vote in the Queensland Senate election in 2022 when they placed first in the ballot draw, with their candidate almost overcoming Pauline Hanson for a senate spot - reaching 5.37% of the vote.

Some of the biggest beneficiaries of this ballot draw are:

Animal Justice (3rd) - The highest-ranked registered party

Labor (4th) - Receiving a high position is incredibly important, as just one extra MLC could be hugely important to their ability to pass legislation if they form government

Liberal/National (9th) - Although near the middle, their spot crucially places them a single spot ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who are historically believed to have won significant vote shares based confusion with the Liberals

Those who may not benefit from the ballot draw:

Legalise Cannabis (15th) - This lower-middle spot could harm them, as the party likely would have won votes off a high position - and if their federal result in NSW were to be replicated, a potential MLC spot would be on thin ice

One Nation (17th) - Not only does this place them at the bottom, but the placing of Independent (FFP) and Independent (UAP) in 1st and 2nd respectively may take some votes from the One Nation ticket - even though the chances of either of them winning are very low

The Greens (18th) - While a lower spot isn't always damaging, this may not assist the party in receiving a 3rd MLC, a spot that could instead be won by Animal Justice

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