Aston by-election: Labor aiming to break century-old record as Liberals try to hold onto seat

The by-election was triggered after former minister Alan Tudge resigned from federal politics.

Aston electors will be heading to the polls on April 1st to elect their new MP after the resignation of Alan Tudge.

As of 2022, Aston had 109,705 electors, sizably more than the average electorate. It includes suburbs such as Bayswater, Ferntree Gully, Rowville, and Wantirna. The area is co-extensive with the City of Knox, which has 9 councillors: 7 Independents, 1 Liberal member and 1 Labor member.

On a state level, the seat is almost entirely located within the seats of Rowville and Bayswater. Bayswater is held on 54% for Labor, while Rowville is held on 54% for the Liberals.

If Labor won the election, it would bring down the total number of Liberal seats to just 3/26 Melbourne seats, and would also mark the first time the government has won a seat from the opposition in more than 100 years, when the Nationalist party won the Kalgoorlie by-election off Labor in 1920.

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History

Aston, formed in 1984, was first won by the Labor's John Saunderson on a 6.5% margin against the Liberals. However, his lead slowly diminished over the next 2 elections, resulting in the Liberals gaining the seat on a 7.2% swing in their favour.

The Liberals have held the seat since, with their result strengthening in recent times, though in 20228 a 7.3% swing against Alan Tudge brought the seat back to its marginal status. The seat is now held by only 2.8%.

Minor parties have only ever reached above 10% on two occasions: 1990, when the Democrats got 13% of the vote, and 2022, when the Greens reached its highest result of 12%.

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Candidates

Roshena Campbell (Liberal) - Melbourne City Councillor for Team Sally Capp

Mary Doyle (Labor) - Unionist and Labor candidate for Aston at 2022 election

Angelica Di Camillo (Greens) - Greens candidate for Rowville at 2022 Vic election

Owen Miller (Fusion) - Tech entrepreneur and AI advocate

Maya Tesa (Independent) - Libertarian Independent and member of the Liberal Democrats

Candidates no longer in the running

Lucas Moon (Liberal) - Considered running for Liberal preselection

Cathrine Burnett-Wake (Liberal) - Ran for Liberal preselection

Ranjana Srivastava (Liberal) - Ran for Liberal preselection

Mark Gardner (Conservative Independent) - Endorsed by The Conservative Party; withdrew

(One Nation) - Party said they would contest by-election, ended up not doing so

2022 candidates

Alan Tudge (Liberal)

Mary Doyle (Labor)

Asher Cookson (Greens)

Rebekah Spelman (United Australia)

Craig Ibbotson (One Nation)

Liam Roche (Liberal Democrats)

Ryan Bruce (TNL)

2022 election results

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
Liberal	Alan Tudge	42,260	43.05	​-11.64
Labor	Mary Doyle	31,949	32.55	+2.74
Greens	Asher Cookson	11,855	12.08	+3.22
United Australia	Rebekah Spelman	5,990	6.10	+2.49
One Nation	Craig Ibbotson	3,022	3.08	+3.08
Liberal Democrats	Liam Roche	​2,111	2.15	+2.15
TNL	Ryan Bruce	973	0.99	+0.99
Two-party-preferred
Liberal	Alan Tudge	51,840	52.81	-7.32
Labor	Mary Doyle	46,320	47.19	+7.32
Liberal hold

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