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Aston by-election: Labor aiming to break century-old record as Liberals try to hold onto seat

The by-election was triggered after former minister Alan Tudge resigned from federal politics.

Aston electors will be heading to the polls on April 1st to elect their new MP after the resignation of Alan Tudge.


As of 2022, Aston had 109,705 electors, sizably more than the average electorate. It includes suburbs such as Bayswater, Ferntree Gully, Rowville, and Wantirna. The area is co-extensive with the City of Knox, which has 9 councillors: 7 Independents, 1 Liberal member and 1 Labor member.


On a state level, the seat is almost entirely located within the seats of Rowville and Bayswater. Bayswater is held on 54% for Labor, while Rowville is held on 54% for the Liberals.


If Labor won the election, it would bring down the total number of Liberal seats to just 3/26 Melbourne seats, and would also mark the first time the government has won a seat from the opposition in more than 100 years, when the Nationalist party won the Kalgoorlie by-election off Labor in 1920.

 

History


Aston, formed in 1984, was first won by the Labor's John Saunderson on a 6.5% margin against the Liberals. However, his lead slowly diminished over the next 2 elections, resulting in the Liberals gaining the seat on a 7.2% swing in their favour.


The Liberals have held the seat since, with their result strengthening in recent times, though in 20228 a 7.3% swing against Alan Tudge brought the seat back to its marginal status. The seat is now held by only 2.8%.


Minor parties have only ever reached above 10% on two occasions: 1990, when the Democrats got 13% of the vote, and 2022, when the Greens reached its highest result of 12%.

 

Candidates


Roshena Campbell (Liberal) - Melbourne City Councillor for Team Sally Capp

Mary Doyle (Labor) - Unionist and Labor candidate for Aston at 2022 election

Angelica Di Camillo (Greens) - Greens candidate for Rowville at 2022 Vic election

Owen Miller (Fusion) - Tech entrepreneur and AI advocate

Maya Tesa (Independent) - Libertarian Independent and member of the Liberal Democrats


Candidates no longer in the running


Lucas Moon (Liberal) - Considered running for Liberal preselection

Cathrine Burnett-Wake (Liberal) - Ran for Liberal preselection

Ranjana Srivastava (Liberal) - Ran for Liberal preselection

Mark Gardner (Conservative Independent) - Endorsed by The Conservative Party; withdrew

(One Nation) - Party said they would contest by-election, ended up not doing so


2022 candidates


Alan Tudge (Liberal)

Mary Doyle (Labor)

Asher Cookson (Greens)

Rebekah Spelman (United Australia)

Craig Ibbotson (One Nation)

Liam Roche (Liberal Democrats)

Ryan Bruce (TNL)


2022 election results

Party

Candidate

Votes

%

±%

Liberal

Alan Tudge

42,260

43.05

​-11.64

Labor

Mary Doyle

31,949

32.55

+2.74

Greens

Asher Cookson

11,855

12.08

+3.22

United Australia

Rebekah Spelman

5,990

6.10

+2.49

One Nation

Craig Ibbotson

3,022

3.08

+3.08

Liberal Democrats

Liam Roche

​2,111

2.15

+2.15

TNL

Ryan Bruce

973

0.99

+0.99

Two-party-preferred

Liberal

Alan Tudge

51,840

52.81

-7.32

Labor

Mary Doyle

46,320

47.19

+7.32

Liberal hold

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