Fadden by-election: Could the seat turn from safe LNP to a Labor - or independent - gain?
The by-election is being held as a result of the resignation of LNP MP Stuart Robert.
Voters in the Queensland federal seat of Fadden will head to the polls on July 15 after the resignation of Liberal National MP and former minister Stuart Robert, who sat with the Liberal Party in parliament.
Fadden, currently held by the LNP on 10.6%, is a northern Gold Coast electorate spanning suburbs such as Coomera, Labrador, Ormeau, and Pimpama. The area mainly spans the state electorates of Coomera, Bonney, Theodore and Broadwater, with the latter being held by Queensland Opposition Leader leader David Crisafulli. These electorates span from being held on just 1%, all the way up to 17%.
Even though a Labor gain is very unlikely, if they were to gain it, it would signify a political earthquake. The seat has only been held briefly by Labor during its almost 60 year lifetime, with the Liberals holding it most recently with outgoing member Stuart Robert.
History
Fadden was first created in 1977, as a South Brisbane seat, held by 13% for the Liberal party. However, with former Brisbane Lord Mayor Clem Jones contesting the seat for the ALP, the margin decreased to just 6%. After a closer win in 1980, it finally fell to Labor for a brief period between 1983 and 1984, until it was regained by the Liberals.
It remained a marginal seat until 1996, when incumbent member David Jull saw a huge 13% swing as a result of the John Howard sweep. The seat remained safe for the rest of its history, with Stuart Robert replacing David Jull in 2007.
Minor parties have also fared well in Fadden over the years, such as the Democrats who, at their peak, polled 13% in 1990. The seat has also been traditionally susceptible to populist parties such as One Nation and the UAP, with Palmer United picking up 15% in 2013, coming close to overtaking Labor for second. The Greens have also made small progress in the area, polling 11% in 2022.
Candidates
Jan Pukallus (Citizens)
Stewart Brooker (Independent)
Belinda Jones (Independent)
2020 Candidates
Stuart Robert (Liberal National)
Letitia Del Fabbro (Labor)
Sally Spain (Greens)
Sandy Roach (One Nation)
Nathan O'Brien (United Australia)
Stewart Brooker (Independent)
Alex Forbes (Liberal Democrats)
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