Meet the 'maroon' Independent vowing for Dutton's seat as new polling shows he's in trouble | 6 News
- Roman Mackinnon
- May 2
- 2 min read
Meet the 'maroon' Independent vowing for Dutton's seat as new polling shows he's in trouble.
Independent candidate for Dickson Ellie Smith is hoping to win the seat of Dickson, held by Peter Dutton for the last 24 years. Smith is backed by environmental group Climate 200 - who hopes to win seats held by high-profile Liberal MP’s.
Dickson will be a hotly contested three-way race. Labor has poured over 130 thousand dollars extra into Dickson last month as new polling shows Ali France could win the seat - on her third attempt. Labor insiders have told Newscorp the independent could "get in the way" of Labor's chances to win Dickson due to Smith's decision to have an open ballot. Campaign managers inside Ellie Smith's team are hopeful of their chances and believe they will ultimately hold the balance of power on who is elected, after the flow of preferences.
Final YouGov polling predicts a 1.5% swing towards Labor in Dickson, meaning Dutton would retain the seat on a slim 0.2% margin.
It also shows Ellie Smith would have a higher primary vote than Greens candidate Vinnie Batten. Both were in attendance at a local community forum in Dickson on Thursday night, after Dutton and France were unable to attend.
A Newscorp exit poll from Thursday night predict Dutton could be in serious danger of losing his seat, with Labor gaining a swing of over 5%, which would see Ali France elected, and Peter Dutton ousted after 24 years.
A UComms poll, commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council last month, which polled just over 850 people, showed France leading Dutton 52-48 on a two-party-preferred basis. 46.7% of those voters say they would be less likely to vote for Dutton due to his nuclear policy.
Anthony Albanese visited Dickson on Day 1 of the campaign, announcing Ali France as the candidate back in July. Dutton was in Dickson on Thursday - which could be a sign he's worried about losing Dickson. He attended two local Anzac services and will be casting his ballot on election day.
Ali France had a 2.9% swing towards her in 2022, after Dickson was held on a 4.6 percent margin, now sitting on a skinny 1.7 per cent. Polling experts predict Dutton will retain his seat - Due to the fact that Labor would need a large enough swing in inner Brisbane, which isn't likely.
It expected that we won't have a result on election night, with insiders predicting the final result could take weeks and could come down to just hundreds of votes.
REMINDER: Our live election coverage will begin at 6PM AEST, with rolling coverage throughout the day as Australians cast their ballots.
